Serie B, round 8 · Saturday, 24 October, 18:15 MSK

Catanzaro — Ascoli

Model prediction for 24 October

Catanzaro45%

Draw28%

Ascoli27%

Model estimate at 23:15 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Catanzaro are slightly stronger: 45% against 27%, draw 28%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

By the strength ratings Catanzaro are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Catanzaro — Ascoli What is xG?		1.6–1.2
Catanzaro not to lose		73%
Ascoli not to lose		55%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		57%
Both teams to score: no		43%
Total over 2.5		52%
Total under 2.5		48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Catanzaro
Catanzaro goals
Ascoli goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Catanzaro

11.10Mantova1:3
19.09away · Sampdoria1:2
12.09Carrarese1:0
05.09away · Südtirol0:2
30.08away · Pisa1:2

Ascoli

10.10away · Südtirol0:0
19.09Avellino3:1
12.09away · Padova0:1
05.09Benevento1:0
29.08Carrarese1:1

Head to head

10.02.2024Catanzaro — Ascoli3:2
16.12.2023Ascoli — Catanzaro1:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Promotion play-offs	Südtirol	6	3	3	0	9–3	+6	12
5, Promotion play-offs	Ascoli	6	3	2	1	7–4	+3	11
6, Promotion play-offs	Avellino	6	3	1	2	11–7	+4	10
19, Relegation	Sampdoria	6	1	1	4	6–13	-7	4
20, Relegation	Catanzaro	6	1	0	5	6–12	-6	3

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

16:00
AvellinoPadovapreliminary
502821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
16:00
CremoneseJuve Stabiapreliminary
482923
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
16:00
Virtus EntellaMantovapreliminary
422929
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
16:00
ModenaCesenapreliminary
512821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
16:00
SüdtirolSampdoriapreliminary
433125
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
20:30
ArezzoBeneventopreliminary
383032
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →