Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 10 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
AZ Alkmaar — FC Twente
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
AZ Alkmaar are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 29%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AZ Alkmaar are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: AZ Alkmaar — No. 3, 19 pts; FC Twente — No. 4, 17 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- FC Twente: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 3 wins, FC Twente 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar — FC Twente What is xG? | 1.7–1.5 | |
| AZ Alkmaar not to lose | 69% | |
| FC Twente not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AZ Alkmaar
- AZ Alkmaar goals
- FC Twente goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Feyenoord0:2
- 20.09Telstar1:0
- 16.09away · Sunderland0:1
- 11.09Willem II1:1
- 06.09away · SC Heerenveen3:2
- 10.10away · Fortuna Sittard1:1
- 20.09PSV Eindhoven3:2
- 12.09ADO Den Haag2:0
- 09.09Telstar1:0
- 06.09away · FC Groningen2:2
Head to head
- 03.05.2026AZ Alkmaar — FC Twente2:2
- 30.11.2025FC Twente — AZ Alkmaar1:0
- 25.05.2025AZ Alkmaar — FC Twente3:2
- 14.05.2025FC Twente — AZ Alkmaar2:3
- 21.12.2024AZ Alkmaar — FC Twente1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | +16 | 19 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 8 | 5 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- Fortuna SittardExcelsiorpreliminary342937XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:13.2
- NEC NijmegenFC Groningenpreliminary4127321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- PSV EindhovenFeyenoordpreliminary4527281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.6
- Sparta RotterdamAjaxpreliminary1624602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →