Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 10 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
NEC Nijmegen — FC Groningen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
NEC Nijmegen are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 27%.
3.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 72%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen — FC Groningen What is xG? | 1.9–1.6 | |
| NEC Nijmegen not to lose | 71% | |
| FC Groningen not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 28% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 69% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 31% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap NEC Nijmegen
- NEC Nijmegen goals
- FC Groningen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Ajax1:1
- 20.09Go Ahead Eagles1:1
- 17.09away · Juventus0:5
- 12.09away · Cambuur0:3
- 08.09Excelsior2:2
- 11.10away · Excelsior5:1
- 18.09PEC Zwolle3:0
- 12.09away · Go Ahead Eagles1:1
- 06.09FC Twente2:2
- 28.08Fortuna Sittard2:3
Head to head
- 10.05.2026FC Groningen — NEC Nijmegen2:1
- 09.11.2025NEC Nijmegen — FC Groningen2:0
- 08.02.2025FC Groningen — NEC Nijmegen2:1
- 03.11.2024NEC Nijmegen — FC Groningen6:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 8 | 4 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | SC Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- Fortuna SittardExcelsiorpreliminary372934XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:13.0
- PSV EindhovenFeyenoordpreliminary4727261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.6
- Sparta RotterdamAjaxpreliminary2327502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.2
- AZ AlkmaarFC Twentepreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →