Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 10 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Sparta Rotterdam — Ajax
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ajax are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ajax are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam — Ajax What is xG? | 1.3–1.9 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam not to lose | 50% | |
| Ajax not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam goals
- Ajax goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Go Ahead Eagles3:3
- 19.09SC Heerenveen0:4
- 13.09away · PSV Eindhoven1:4
- 04.09PEC Zwolle2:2
- 29.08away · Excelsior1:2
- 10.10NEC Nijmegen1:1
- 19.09Excelsior2:2
- 15.09Willem II5:1
- 12.09away · Fortuna Sittard5:1
- 05.09PSV Eindhoven1:3
Head to head
- 14.03.2026Ajax — Sparta Rotterdam4:0
- 04.10.2025Sparta Rotterdam — Ajax3:3
- 27.04.2025Ajax — Sparta Rotterdam1:1
- 22.12.2024Sparta Rotterdam — Ajax0:2
- 17.03.2024Sparta Rotterdam — Ajax2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Twente | 8 | 5 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 8 | 4 | +6 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Utrecht | 8 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- Fortuna SittardExcelsiorpreliminary372934XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:13.0
- NEC NijmegenFC Groningenpreliminary4327291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
- PSV EindhovenFeyenoordpreliminary4727261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.6
- AZ AlkmaarFC Twentepreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →