Nigeria NPFL, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK
Barau — Enugu Rangers
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2:2Missed
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Barau to win (50%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.
Barau are clear favourites: 50% against 21% for the opponent, draw 29%.
1.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 27%, both teams to score — 32%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Barau — Enugu Rangers What is xG? | 1.2–0.6 | |
| Barau not to lose | 79% | |
| Enugu Rangers not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 32% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 68% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 27% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 73% |
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Form
- 04.10away · Bendel Insurance1:4
- 26.09away · Sporting Lagos1:1
- 23.09Abia Warriors2:0
- 19.09away · Ikorodu City0:0
- 13.09Ranchers Bees3:1
- 04.10Abia Warriors3:1
- 30.09away · Warri Wolves FC1:0
- 27.09away · Ikorodu City0:2
- 23.09Ranchers Bees1:0
- 20.09away · Kun Khalifat4:2
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Enugu Rangers — Barau0:0
- 17.11.2025Barau — Enugu Rangers2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enugu Rangers | 8 | 5 | +5 | 17 |
| 2 | Rivers United FC | 8 | 4 | +11 | 16 |
| 3 | Plateau United | 8 | 4 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Barau | 8 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Doma United | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
Next matches
- Rivers United FCBarau18 October · Nigeria NPFL6821101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.0
- Enugu RangersBendel Insurance18 October · Nigeria NPFL731791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- 4231281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.1.8
- 5825181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.4
- 6621131The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.4
- 6323141The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 5227221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
- 6822101The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →