Nigeria NPFL, round 10 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Barau — Kwara United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Barau are clear favourites: 65% against 12% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 32%, both teams to score — 30%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Barau are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Barau — Kwara United What is xG? | 1.5–0.5 | |
| Barau not to lose | 88% | |
| Kwara United not to lose | 35% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 30% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 70% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 32% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 68% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Barau
- Barau goals
- Kwara United goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10Enugu Rangers2:2
- 04.10away · Bendel Insurance1:4
- 26.09away · Sporting Lagos1:1
- 23.09Abia Warriors2:0
- 19.09away · Ikorodu City0:0
- 10.10away · Ikorodu City0:2
- 04.10Ranchers Bees2:1
- 27.09away · Kun Khalifat0:1
- 23.09Nasarawa United2:1
- 20.09away · Warri Wolves FC0:1
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Kwara United — Barau2:1
- 30.11.2025Barau — Kwara United3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Plateau United | 8 | 4 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Barau | 8 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Doma United | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Nasarawa United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Kwara United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Warri Wolves FC | 8 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- Abia WarriorsNiger Tornadoespreliminary5926151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.8
- Bendel InsuranceRivers United FCpreliminary4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- Ikorodu CityShooting Starspreliminary7119101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Katsina UnitedPlateau Unitedpreliminary5327201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- Kun KhalifatInter Lagospreliminary761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Nasarawa UnitedEnyimbapreliminary6223141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- Ranchers BeesDoma Unitedpreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Warri Wolves FCKano Pillarspreliminary5527181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →