La Liga, round 11 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Barcelona — Deportivo Alavés
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Barcelona are clear favourites: 91% against 2% for the opponent, draw 7%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Barcelona are about 1.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Barcelona — No. 1, 24 pts; Deportivo Alavés — No. 7, 11 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
- Barcelona: 5 wins in a row; Deportivo Alavés: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Barcelona 4 wins, Deportivo Alavés 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Barcelona — Deportivo Alavés What is xG? | 2.8–0.7 | |
| Barcelona not to lose | 98% | |
| Deportivo Alavés not to lose | 9% | |
| No draw | 93% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 69% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 31% |
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Form
- 13.10away · Galatasaray4:1
- 10.10Getafe3:0
- 19.09away · Sevilla3:1
- 16.09Racing Santander7:2
- 13.09away · Levante4:2
- 10.10Atlético Madrid1:2
- 19.09away · Athletic Club0:0
- 15.09Valencia0:1
- 12.09away · Racing Santander1:2
- 06.09Osasuna5:2
Head to head
- 13.05.2026Deportivo Alavés — Barcelona1:0
- 29.11.2025Barcelona — Deportivo Alavés3:1
- 02.02.2025Barcelona — Deportivo Alavés1:0
- 06.10.2024Deportivo Alavés — Barcelona0:3
- 03.02.2024Deportivo Alavés — Barcelona1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | +27 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Atlético Madrid | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruña | 8 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
La Liga on the same day
- LevanteAtlético Madridpreliminary1625592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.1
- Rayo VallecanoCelta Vigopreliminary4130281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- Real BetisMálagapreliminary6822101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 91% will not happen in roughly 9 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →