UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Bayern München — Arsenal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bayern München are clear favourites: 68% against 13% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects few goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayern München are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bayern München — Arsenal What is xG? | 2.2–0.9 | |
| Bayern München not to lose | 87% | |
| Arsenal not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bayern München
- Bayern München goals
- Arsenal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · Viking3:3
- 10.10away · Augsburg2:2
- 18.09Union Berlin7:0
- 13.09away · Elversberg2:1
- 10.09Bodø/Glimt5:0
- 13.10Lille3:0
- 10.10Leeds United2:1
- 19.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
- 15.09away · Ipswich Town4:2
- 12.09away · Sunderland2:0
Head to head
- 26.11.2025Arsenal — Bayern München3:1
- 17.04.2024Bayern München — Arsenal1:0
- 09.04.2024Arsenal — Bayern München2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Straight to the round of 16 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | +5 | 4 |
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- LilleGalatasaraypreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- ComoManchester Unitedpreliminary5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Real MadridRB Leipzigpreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- InterShakhtar Donetskpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Sporting CPLASKpreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- Aston VillaVikingpreliminary5624211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Club BruggeLenspreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- Real BetisFeyenoordpreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →