Bundesliga, round 8 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bayern München are clear favourites: 75% against 9% for the opponent, draw 15%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 4.0 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 76%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayern München are about 1.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund What is xG? | 2.8–1.2 | |
| Bayern München not to lose | 91% | |
| Borussia Dortmund not to lose | 25% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 76% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 24% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bayern München
- Bayern München goals
- Borussia Dortmund goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · Viking3:3
- 10.10away · Augsburg2:2
- 18.09Union Berlin7:0
- 13.09away · Elversberg2:1
- 10.09Bodø/Glimt5:0
- 09.10Werder Bremen2:2
- 19.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:0
- 12.09Paderborn3:0
- 08.09Villarreal3:2
- 05.09away · Hoffenheim3:2
Head to head
- 28.02.2026Borussia Dortmund — Bayern München2:3
- 18.10.2025Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund2:1
- 12.04.2025Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund2:2
- 30.11.2024Borussia Dortmund — Bayern München1:1
- 30.03.2024Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3, Champions League | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | +12 | 11 |
| 4, Champions League | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | +6 | 10 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- AugsburgFreiburgpreliminary3030392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- Bayer LeverkusenVfB Stuttgartpreliminary5724201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
- Borussia MönchengladbachPaderbornpreliminary4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Schalke 04RB Leipzigpreliminary1626572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Werder BremenHoffenheimpreliminary352935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →