Bundesliga, round 8 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites: 57% against 20% for the opponent, draw 24%.
3.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 69%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayer Leverkusen are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart What is xG? | 2.2–1.4 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen not to lose | 80% | |
| VfB Stuttgart not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 31% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 70% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 30% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen goals
- VfB Stuttgart goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Mainz 054:3
- 20.09RB Leipzig2:0
- 16.09NK Celje2:0
- 12.09away · Augsburg2:2
- 05.09Union Berlin4:0
- 10.10away · Paderborn2:0
- 19.09Borussia Dortmund0:1
- 12.09away · Hoffenheim1:2
- 09.09Viking3:1
- 04.091. FC Köln4:1
Head to head
- 09.05.2026VfB Stuttgart — Bayer Leverkusen3:1
- 10.01.2026Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart1:4
- 16.03.2025VfB Stuttgart — Bayer Leverkusen3:4
- 01.11.2024Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart0:0
- 27.04.2024Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | +12 | 11 |
| 4, Champions League | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | +6 | 10 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | +10 | 9 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | -10 | 6 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- AugsburgFreiburgpreliminary3030392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- Borussia MönchengladbachPaderbornpreliminary4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Schalke 04RB Leipzigpreliminary1626572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Werder BremenHoffenheimpreliminary352935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:13.1
- Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmundpreliminary751591The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:14.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →