Bundesliga, round 8 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Augsburg — Freiburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Freiburg are slightly stronger: 39% against 30%, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Freiburg are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Augsburg — Freiburg What is xG? | 1.4–1.6 | |
| Augsburg not to lose | 61% | |
| Freiburg not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Augsburg
- Augsburg goals
- Freiburg goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10Bayern München2:2
- 19.09away · Werder Bremen2:3
- 12.09Bayer Leverkusen2:2
- 06.09away · Eintracht Frankfurt4:1
- 30.08Schalke 043:0
- 11.10Schalke 042:1
- 19.09away · Eintracht Frankfurt2:2
- 12.09Borussia Mönchengladbach5:0
- 05.09away · Paderborn1:0
- 30.08Werder Bremen4:1
Head to head
- 18.01.2026Augsburg — Freiburg2:2
- 23.08.2025Freiburg — Augsburg1:3
- 02.03.2025Augsburg — Freiburg0:0
- 19.10.2024Freiburg — Augsburg3:1
- 25.02.2024Augsburg — Freiburg2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | +10 | 9 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- Bayer LeverkusenVfB Stuttgartpreliminary5724201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6
- Borussia MönchengladbachPaderbornpreliminary4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Schalke 04RB Leipzigpreliminary1626572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Werder BremenHoffenheimpreliminary352935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:13.1
- Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmundpreliminary751591The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:14.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →