Bundesliga, round 6 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Bayern München — RB Leipzig
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Bayern München are clear favourites: 83% against 5% for the opponent, draw 12%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 80%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayern München are about 1.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Bayern München — No. 3, 11 pts; RB Leipzig — No. 5, 9 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Bayern München: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Bayern München 4 wins, RB Leipzig 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bayern München — RB Leipzig What is xG? | 3.2–1.1 | |
| Bayern München not to lose | 95% | |
| RB Leipzig not to lose | 17% | |
| No draw | 88% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 80% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 20% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bayern München
- Bayern München goals
- RB Leipzig goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · Viking3:3
- 10.10away · Augsburg2:2
- 18.09Union Berlin7:0
- 13.09away · Elversberg2:1
- 10.09Bodø/Glimt5:0
- 13.10PSV Eindhoven1:0
- 10.10Eintracht Frankfurt6:0
- 20.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:2
- 13.09Hamburger SV5:0
- 10.09away · Como1:4
Head to head
- 11.02.2026Bayern München — RB Leipzig2:0
- 17.01.2026RB Leipzig — Bayern München1:5
- 22.08.2025Bayern München — RB Leipzig6:0
- 03.05.2025RB Leipzig — Bayern München3:3
- 20.12.2024Bayern München — RB Leipzig5:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3, Champions League | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | +12 | 11 |
| 4, Champions League | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | +6 | 10 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | +10 | 9 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 352937XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:13.3
- 2226522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
- 2931402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 1823582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- 4530251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 83% will not happen in roughly 17 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →