UEFA Nations League, round 3, League A, group 1 · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Stade Maurice Dufrasne
Belgium — Turkiye
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:0Came true
In short
Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Belgium to win (65%), came true.
Belgium are clear favourites: 65% against 15% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Belgium 1959, Turkiye 1794 — Belgium clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Belgium — Turkiye What is xG? | 2.4–1.1 | |
| Belgium not to lose | 85% | |
| Turkiye not to lose | 35% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Belgium
- Belgium goals
- Turkiye goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
Next matches
- FranceBelgium5 October · UEFA Nations League5225231The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- ItalyTurkiye5 October · UEFA Nations League5922191The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.1
UEFA Nations League on the same day
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- 3826361The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 2228502The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
- 5923181The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 4628261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
- 4630241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 2424522The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
- 5226231The most likely outcome came true: 16:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →