UEFA Nations League, round 4, League A, group 1 · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Stade de France
France — Belgium
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:1Came true
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, France to win (52%), came true.
France are clear favourites: 52% against 23% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- National-team Elo: France 2088, Belgium 1972 — France rated higher.
- France: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: France — Belgium What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| France not to lose | 77% | |
| Belgium not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap France
- France goals
- Belgium goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
Head to head
- 28.09.2026Belgium — France0:1
- 14.10.2024Belgium — France1:2
- 09.09.2024France — Belgium2:0
- 01.07.2024France — Belgium1:0
- 07.10.2021Belgium — France2:3
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.5
- 5922191The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.1
- 4230281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2
- 3030402The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 2527482The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.5
- 2324532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
- 5922191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →