UEFA Nations League, round 4, League A, group 1 · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Italy — Turkiye
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Italy to win (59%), came true.
Italy are clear favourites: 59% against 19% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Italy 1897, Turkiye 1781 — Italy rated higher.
- Italy: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Italy — Turkiye What is xG? | 2.0–1.1 | |
| Italy not to lose | 81% | |
| Turkiye not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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- Handicap Italy
- Italy goals
- Turkiye goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 02.10away · France1:1
- 28.09away · Turkiye4:1
- 25.09Belgium0:2
- 07.06away · Greece1:0
- 03.06away · Luxembourg1:0
Head to head
- 28.09.2026Turkiye — Italy1:4
- 04.06.2024Italy — Turkiye0:0
- 29.03.2022Turkiye — Italy2:3
- 11.06.2021Turkiye — Italy0:3
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.5
- 5225231The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 4230281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2
- 3030402The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 2527482The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.5
- 2324532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
- 5922191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →