UEFA Europa League, round 2 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz)

Benfica — Celtic

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Model prediction for 15 October

Benfica67%
Draw20%
Celtic13%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Benfica are clear favourites: 67% against 13% for the opponent, draw 20%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.

Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Benfica are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Benfica — Celtic What is xG?2.2–0.9
Benfica not to lose87%
Celtic not to lose33%
No draw80%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.559%
Total under 2.541%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Benfica
  • Benfica goals
  • Celtic goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Benfica

  • 11.10Vitória de Guimarães2:0
  • 20.09away · FC Porto1:3
  • 16.09away · Milan2:0
  • 13.09Gil Vicente3:1
  • 09.09away · Moreirense4:0

Celtic

  • 11.10away · Motherwell2:0
  • 20.09Rangers0:1
  • 17.09Ferencváros1:3
  • 09.09away · St. Johnstone1:0
  • 05.09away · St. Mirren2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
7, Straight to the round of 16Bayer Leverkusen11002–0+23
8, Straight to the round of 16Benfica11002–0+23
9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16OFI Crete11002–0+23
27Celta Vigo10010–1-10
28Celtic10011–3-20
29Milan10010–2-20

Season 2026/27

Full table

Europa League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →