Turkish Super Lig, round 9 · Monday, 26 October, MSK
Beşiktaş — Başakşehir
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 26 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Beşiktaş are clear favourites: 69% against 11% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Beşiktaş are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Beşiktaş — No. 2, 15 pts; Başakşehir — No. 11, 8 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Beşiktaş 2 wins, Başakşehir 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Beşiktaş — Başakşehir What is xG? | 2.2–1.0 | |
| Beşiktaş not to lose | 89% | |
| Başakşehir not to lose | 31% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Beşiktaş
- Beşiktaş goals
- Başakşehir goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10Kocaelispor2:1
- 20.09away · Amed Sportif2:3
- 17.09Marseille4:1
- 11.09Erzurumspor FK3:0
- 05.09away · Fenerbahçe2:1
- 11.10away · Konyaspor0:0
- 19.09Gençlerbirliği4:0
- 13.09away · Amed Sportif0:5
- 04.09Galatasaray2:3
- 30.08Kasımpaşa1:1
Head to head
- 15.02.2026Başakşehir — Beşiktaş2:3
- 13.09.2025Beşiktaş — Başakşehir2:1
- 12.04.2025Beşiktaş — Başakşehir0:2
- 10.11.2024Başakşehir — Beşiktaş0:0
- 04.04.2024Başakşehir — Beşiktaş1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | +5 | 16 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Amed Sportif | 7 | 4 | +8 | 14 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
Super Lig on the same day
- RizesporTrabzonsporpreliminary4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- GalatasarayFenerbahçepreliminary5025251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →