Argentine Liga Profesional · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Estadio Alberto José Armando
Boca Juniors — Unión
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3:0Came true
In short
Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Boca Juniors to win (62%), came true.
Boca Juniors are clear favourites: 62% against 14% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Boca Juniors are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Boca Juniors — Unión What is xG? | 1.8–0.7 | |
| Boca Juniors not to lose | 86% | |
| Unión not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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Form
- 27.09away · Racing Club3:2
- 20.09away · San Lorenzo2:0
- 16.09away · São Paulo1:1
- 12.09Central Córdoba de Santiago3:1
- 09.09São Paulo1:0
- 19.09Independiente1:2
- 13.09away · Talleres1:2
- 08.09Instituto3:2
- 29.08Sarmiento4:1
- 21.08away · Aldosivi3:1
Head to head
- 16.03.2026Unión — Boca Juniors1:1
- 19.07.2025Boca Juniors — Unión1:1
- 30.01.2025Unión — Boca Juniors1:1
- 21.11.2024Boca Juniors — Unión1:0
- 06.07.2023Unión — Boca Juniors0:0
Next matches
- InstitutoBoca Juniors10 October · Liga Profesional4230281The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- UniónDefensa y Justicia10 October · Liga Profesional4528271The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 3532331The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 4828241The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4631231The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
- 3633311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 4831221The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →