Argentine Liga Profesional · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro
Atlético Tucumán — Barracas Central
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In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético Tucumán to win (48%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 48% fails in about 52 matches out of 100 on average.
Atlético Tucumán are clear favourites: 48% against 22% for the opponent, draw 31%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Tucumán are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Tucumán — Barracas Central What is xG? | 1.3–0.8 | |
| Atlético Tucumán not to lose | 78% | |
| Barracas Central not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 34% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 66% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético Tucumán
- Atlético Tucumán goals
- Barracas Central goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 21.09away · Aldosivi0:1
- 17.09away · Independiente Rivadavia1:1
- 12.09River Plate1:2
- 07.09away · Racing Club2:1
- 30.08Belgrano0:0
- 22.09Independiente Rivadavia0:1
- 15.09away · Banfield1:1
- 08.09Argentinos Juniors0:0
- 01.09away · Tigre0:0
- 28.08away · Estudiantes1:3
Head to head
- 16.03.2026Barracas Central — Atlético Tucumán2:1
- 29.07.2024Barracas Central — Atlético Tucumán0:2
- 19.03.2023Atlético Tucumán — Barracas Central1:1
- 24.08.2022Atlético Tucumán — Barracas Central4:0
Next matches
- Gimnasia LPAtlético Tucumán10 October · Liga Profesional4630231The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- Barracas CentralHuracán10 October · Liga Profesional363331XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:1.1.8
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 3532331The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 6224141The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4828241The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4631231The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
- 3633311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →