Argentine Liga Profesional · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Estadio Libertadores de América
Independiente — Instituto
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In short
Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Independiente to win (35%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 35% fails in about 65 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Independiente 35%, Instituto 33%, draw 32%.
2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 33%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Independiente — Instituto What is xG? | 1.0–1.0 | |
| Independiente not to lose | 67% | |
| Instituto not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 33% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 67% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Independiente
- Independiente goals
- Instituto goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Unión2:1
- 14.09San Lorenzo1:1
- 06.09away · Central Córdoba de Santiago1:0
- 31.08Gimnasia Mendoza0:3
- 23.08Independiente Rivadavia0:0
- 20.09Talleres3:1
- 15.09Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2:1
- 08.09away · Unión2:3
- 01.09San Lorenzo1:0
- 28.08away · Club Atlético Platense1:1
Head to head
- 17.03.2026Instituto — Independiente2:1
- 30.08.2025Instituto — Independiente0:0
- 23.02.2025Independiente — Instituto2:0
- 19.07.2024Instituto — Independiente3:1
- 05.03.2023Independiente — Instituto2:2
Next matches
- InstitutoBoca Juniors10 October · Liga Profesional4230281The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- TalleresIndependiente12 October · Liga Profesional4729241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.1
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 6224141The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4828241The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 4631231The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
- 3633311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 4831221The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →