Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Estadio Américo Montanini
Bucaramanga — Junior FC
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3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Bucaramanga to win (45%), came true.
Bucaramanga are slightly stronger: 45% against 26%, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Bucaramanga: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Bucaramanga 1 win, Junior FC 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bucaramanga — Junior FC What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Bucaramanga not to lose | 74% | |
| Junior FC not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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Form
- 26.09away · Once Caldas3:1
- 21.09Internacional de Bogotá2:0
- 18.09Independiente Medellín2:2
- 13.09away · Deportivo Pereira3:1
- 31.08away · Deportivo Cali1:1
- 01.10away · Atlético Nacional1:3
- 27.09Independiente Medellín2:0
- 20.09away · Fortaleza FC4:1
- 13.09away · Alianza FC0:1
- 06.09CD Jaguares3:3
Head to head
- 25.03.2026Junior FC — Bucaramanga2:0
- 19.08.2025Junior FC — Bucaramanga2:1
- 01.03.2025Bucaramanga — Junior FC1:1
- 19.07.2024Bucaramanga — Junior FC1:0
- 26.05.2024Junior FC — Bucaramanga1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Semi-final groups | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | +11 | 25 |
| 3, Semi-final groups | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | +10 | 24 |
| 4, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 11 | 7 | +11 | 23 |
| 16 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior FC | 12 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 | CD Jaguares | 12 | 2 | -8 | 10 |
Next matches
- Junior FCInternacional de Bogotá11 October · Colombian Primera A6023171The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.0
- BucaramangaÁguilas Doradas14 October · Colombian Primera A4629251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- 4827241The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 3529362The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.5
- 3030402The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:2, exactly right.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →