UEFA Nations League, round 2, League C, group 4 · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · Stadion Hristo Botev
Bulgaria — Estonia
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Bulgaria to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.
Bulgaria are clear favourites: 46% against 25% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Bulgaria 1432, Estonia 1374 — Bulgaria rated higher.
- Bulgaria: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bulgaria — Estonia What is xG? | 1.4–1.0 | |
| Bulgaria not to lose | 75% | |
| Estonia not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bulgaria
- Bulgaria goals
- Estonia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 26.09Luxembourg1:2
- 05.06away · Moldova2:2
- 01.06Montenegro0:1
- 30.03away · Indonesia1:0
- 27.03away · Solomon Islands10:2
- 26.09away · Iceland1:1
- 09.06Lithuania1:0
- 06.06Faroe Islands1:0
- 30.03away · Rwanda0:2
- 27.03away · Kenya1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Iceland | 4 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Estonia | 4 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | -5 | 3 |
Next matches
- IcelandBulgaria3 October · UEFA Nations League6223151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- EstoniaLuxembourg3 October · UEFA Nations League3231372The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5725191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 2830422The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 919722The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.3.0
- 771671The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 1925562The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 5428181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 17932The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:3, exactly right.3.3
- 7021101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →