UEFA Nations League, round 3, League C, group 4 · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · A. Le Coq Arena
Estonia — Luxembourg
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In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Luxembourg to win (37%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 37% fails in about 63 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Estonia 32%, Luxembourg 37%, draw 31%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Estonia 1383, Luxembourg 1439 — Luxembourg rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Estonia — Luxembourg What is xG? | 1.1–1.2 | |
| Estonia not to lose | 63% | |
| Luxembourg not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Estonia
- Estonia goals
- Luxembourg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 29.09away · Bulgaria0:0
- 26.09away · Iceland1:1
- 09.06Lithuania1:0
- 06.06Faroe Islands1:0
- 30.03away · Rwanda0:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Iceland | 4 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Estonia | 4 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | -5 | 3 |
Next matches
- EstoniaIceland6 October · UEFA Nations League1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
- LuxembourgBulgaria6 October · UEFA Nations League343136XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 3432341The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 2325522The most likely outcome came true: 20:7Final score 0:7. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 871121The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 6223151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 88931The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.6
- 2127522The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
- 6623121The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →