Segunda Division, round 9 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Estadio Municipal de El Plantío
Burgos CF — Granada
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Burgos CF to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
Burgos CF are slightly stronger: 44% against 26%, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Burgos CF 1 win, Granada 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Burgos CF — Granada What is xG? | 1.2–0.9 | |
| Burgos CF not to lose | 74% | |
| Granada not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 36% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 64% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Burgos CF
- Burgos CF goals
- Granada goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 03.10away · Almería1:2
- 27.09Eldense1:0
- 20.09away · Las Palmas2:1
- 11.09AD Ceuta FC3:1
- 06.09away · Real Oviedo0:0
- 04.10away · Real Sociedad B3:2
- 26.09FC Andorra2:3
- 20.09away · Leganés2:3
- 12.09Albacete1:1
- 06.09away · Eibar0:3
Head to head
- 16.05.2026Granada — Burgos CF0:1
- 22.09.2025Burgos CF — Granada1:1
- 10.01.2025Granada — Burgos CF0:0
- 29.09.2024Burgos CF — Granada2:2
- 04.03.2023Burgos CF — Granada1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | +6 | 15 |
| 8 | Burgos CF | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada | 9 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Real Valladolid | 9 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
Next matches
- GranadaCádiz18 October · Segunda Division5725191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Burgos CFSabadell18 October · Segunda Division363232XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.1
Segunda Division on the same day
- 5127221The most likely outcome came true: 15:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 333037XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →