Segunda Division, round 11 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Cádiz — AD Ceuta FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Cádiz are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cádiz are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Cádiz — No. 20, 7 pts; AD Ceuta FC — No. 21, 5 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 2 meetings: Cádiz 0 wins, AD Ceuta FC 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cádiz — AD Ceuta FC What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Cádiz not to lose | 76% | |
| AD Ceuta FC not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cádiz
- Cádiz goals
- AD Ceuta FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Sabadell1:2
- 04.10away · Castellón1:1
- 26.09Real Sociedad B3:1
- 20.09Real Valladolid1:1
- 11.09away · Burgos CF1:3
Head to head
- 28.03.2026AD Ceuta FC — Cádiz2:1
- 28.09.2025Cádiz — AD Ceuta FC0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19, Relegation | Real Sociedad B | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 20, Relegation | Cádiz | 9 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 21, Relegation | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | -12 | 5 |
| 22, Relegation | Albacete | 9 | 0 | -15 | 1 |
Segunda Division on the same day
- SabadellTenerifepreliminary6224141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- AlbaceteEldensepreliminary4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- CastellónSporting Gijónpreliminary5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →