Segunda Division, round 11 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Castellón — Sporting Gijón
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Castellón are clear favourites: 53% against 21% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Castellón are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Castellón — Sporting Gijón What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| Castellón not to lose | 79% | |
| Sporting Gijón not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Castellón
- Castellón goals
- Sporting Gijón goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · FC Andorra0:1
- 04.10AD Ceuta FC1:1
- 28.09away · Leganés2:0
- 19.09Tenerife5:0
- 12.09away · Girona2:1
- 11.10away · Cádiz1:0
- 04.10Celta Fortuna3:2
- 27.09away · Real Oviedo0:2
- 19.09away · FC Andorra3:1
- 13.09Eldense0:1
Head to head
- 15.03.2026Sporting Gijón — Castellón4:1
- 05.10.2025Castellón — Sporting Gijón3:1
- 05.05.2025Castellón — Sporting Gijón4:3
- 14.10.2024Sporting Gijón — Castellón2:1
Table
Segunda Division on the same day
- SabadellTenerifepreliminary6224141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- AlbaceteEldensepreliminary4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- CádizAD Ceuta FCpreliminary4926241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →