Serie B, round 9 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Carrarese — Arezzo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Carrarese are slightly stronger: 42% against 29%, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Carrarese — No. 18, 4 pts; Arezzo — No. 12, 7 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Carrarese — Arezzo What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Carrarese not to lose | 71% | |
| Arezzo not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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Form
- 11.10away · Padova2:0
- 19.09Benevento0:1
- 12.09away · Catanzaro0:1
- 05.09Empoli0:1
- 29.08away · Ascoli1:1
- 10.10Cremonese0:0
- 20.09Südtirol1:4
- 11.09away · Empoli1:0
- 06.09away · Hellas Verona0:5
- 30.08Palermo2:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Padova | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 6 | 2 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Virtus Entella | 6 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 17, Relegation play-off | LR Vicenza | 6 | 1 | -6 | 5 |
| 18, Relegation | Carrarese | 6 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 19, Relegation | Sampdoria | 6 | 1 | -7 | 4 |
Serie B on the same day
- PisaPalermopreliminary4227311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- Juve StabiaHellas Veronapreliminary352935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →