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Segunda Division, round 11 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK

Castellón — Sporting Gijón

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Model prediction for 25 October

Castellón56%
Draw25%
Sporting Gijón19%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Castellón are clear favourites: 56% against 19% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Castellón are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • League table: Castellón — No. 3, 20 pts; Sporting Gijón — No. 6, 16 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Last 4 meetings: Castellón 2 wins, Sporting Gijón 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Castellón — Sporting Gijón What is xG?1.8–1.0
Castellón not to lose81%
Sporting Gijón not to lose44%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.553%
Total under 2.547%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Castellón
  • Castellón goals
  • Sporting Gijón goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Castellón

  • 11.10away · FC Andorra0:1
  • 04.10AD Ceuta FC1:1
  • 28.09away · Leganés2:0
  • 19.09Tenerife5:0
  • 12.09away · Girona2:1

Sporting Gijón

  • 11.10away · Cádiz1:0
  • 04.10Celta Fortuna3:2
  • 27.09away · Real Oviedo0:2
  • 19.09away · FC Andorra3:1
  • 13.09Eldense0:1

Head to head

  • 15.03.2026Sporting Gijón — Castellón4:1
  • 05.10.2025Castellón — Sporting Gijón3:1
  • 05.05.2025Castellón — Sporting Gijón4:3
  • 14.10.2024Sporting Gijón — Castellón2:1

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2, PromotionEibar970219–10+921
3, Promotion play-offsCastellón962115–4+1120
4, Promotion play-offsMallorca952211–4+717
5, Promotion play-offsSabadell944110–7+316
6, Promotion play-offsSporting Gijón95139–8+116
7Girona943215–9+615

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

  • SabadellTenerifepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
  • AlbaceteEldensepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
  • CádizAD Ceuta FCpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →