UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Club Brugge — Lens
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Club Brugge are clear favourites: 57% against 20% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Club Brugge are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Club Brugge — Lens What is xG? | 1.9–1.0 | |
| Club Brugge not to lose | 80% | |
| Lens not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Club Brugge
- Club Brugge goals
- Lens goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 13.10away · Inter4:3
- 10.10away · RAAL La Louvière4:1
- 20.09Genk3:0
- 13.09Royal Antwerp3:1
- 08.09Aston Villa2:3
- 13.10Sporting CP0:2
- 09.10Lyon2:1
- 18.09away · Monaco1:2
- 13.09away · Le Mans2:2
- 10.09away · Slavia Prague3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Club Brugge | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lens | 2 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- LilleGalatasaraypreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- ComoManchester Unitedpreliminary5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Bayern MünchenArsenalpreliminary6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
- Real MadridRB Leipzigpreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- InterShakhtar Donetskpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Sporting CPLASKpreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- Aston VillaVikingpreliminary5624211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Real BetisFeyenoordpreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →