Brazilian Serie A, round 29 · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto
Cruzeiro — São Paulo
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Cruzeiro to win (52%), came true.
Cruzeiro are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cruzeiro are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cruzeiro — São Paulo What is xG? | 1.6–0.9 | |
| Cruzeiro not to lose | 79% | |
| São Paulo not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro goals
- São Paulo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 20.09away · Vitória3:1
- 13.09away · Santos1:2
- 06.09Athletico Paranaense3:1
- 02.09away · Atlético-MG1:2
- 30.08away · Vasco da Gama1:3
- 03.10Santos1:2
- 20.09Internacional1:0
- 16.09Boca Juniors1:1
- 13.09away · Palmeiras0:2
- 09.09away · Boca Juniors0:1
Head to head
- 05.04.2026São Paulo — Cruzeiro4:1
- 31.08.2025Cruzeiro — São Paulo1:0
- 13.04.2025São Paulo — Cruzeiro1:1
- 16.09.2024Cruzeiro — São Paulo0:1
- 03.06.2024São Paulo — Cruzeiro2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 11, Copa Sudamericana | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | -10 | 39 |
Next matches
- São PauloVitória11 October · Brasileirao5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- RB BragantinoCruzeiro13 October · Brasileirao4228301The most likely outcome came true: 14:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
Brasileirao on the same day
- 4628261The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 5226221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.5
- 4827251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 5526191The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 5126231The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →