Brazilian Serie B, round 33 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Arena Pantanal
Cuiabá — Avaí
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Cuiabá to win (57%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.
Cuiabá are clear favourites: 57% against 16% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 1.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 34%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cuiabá are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cuiabá — Avaí What is xG? | 1.3–0.6 | |
| Cuiabá not to lose | 84% | |
| Avaí not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 34% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 66% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 31% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 69% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cuiabá
- Cuiabá goals
- Avaí goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 08.10away · Vila Nova0:0
- 03.10Ponte Preta2:0
- 27.09away · CRB0:3
- 22.09Náutico3:0
- 14.09away · Novorizontino1:1
Head to head
- 21.06.2026Avaí — Cuiabá1:0
- 10.08.2025Avaí — Cuiabá2:0
- 11.04.2025Cuiabá — Avaí2:2
- 28.10.2022Cuiabá — Avaí1:0
- 03.07.2022Avaí — Cuiabá1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Goiás | 33 | 14 | -6 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiabá | 33 | 11 | +6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | +10 | 46 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 17, Relegation | Avaí | 33 | 10 | -10 | 36 |
| 18, Relegation | Londrina | 32 | 7 | -7 | 28 |
Next matches
- AvaíAthletic Club MG18 October · Brasileirao Serie B4528261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
- LondrinaCuiabá21 October · Brasileirao Serie B · preliminary3230382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.2
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 4329281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 4528261The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →