Brazilian Serie B, round 33 · Monday, 12 October, 22:00 MSK · Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Fortaleza — CRB

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Model prediction and result

2:2Missed

Fortaleza45%

Draw28%

CRB26%

Model estimate at 21:29 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Fortaleza to win (45%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 45% fails in about 55 matches out of 100 on average.

Fortaleza are slightly stronger: 45% against 26%, draw 28%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fortaleza — CRB What is xG?		1.4–1.0
Fortaleza not to lose		74%
CRB not to lose		55%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		48%
Both teams to score: no		52%
Total over 2.5		42%
Total under 2.5		58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Fortaleza
Fortaleza goals
CRB goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Fortaleza

08.10away · América-MG1:0
03.10Náutico1:1
28.09Athletic Club MG2:2
21.09away · Londrina2:1
14.09Ceará1:1

CRB

08.10Atlético-GO3:1
03.10away · São Bernardo1:3
27.09Cuiabá3:0
20.09away · Ponte Preta0:1
16.09Sport Recife2:1

Head to head

21.06.2026CRB — Fortaleza1:1
15.05.2026CRB — Fortaleza0:0
23.04.2026Fortaleza — CRB2:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Promotion play-offs	Juventude	33	17	9	7	39–21	+18	60
4, Promotion play-offs	Fortaleza	33	15	12	6	39–29	+10	57
5, Promotion play-offs	Criciúma	33	16	8	9	34–28	+6	56
6, Promotion play-offs	Atlético-GO	33	14	11	8	41–31	+10	53
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	51–47	+4	52
8	Sport Recife	33	13	12	8	45–35	+10	51

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

02:30
Sport RecifeFortaleza17 October · Brasileirao Serie B
462827
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
22:00
CRBBotafogo SP18 October · Brasileirao Serie B
592417
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

00:30
Operário-PRGoiás
432928
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
00:30
CuiabáAvaí
572616
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.1.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →