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UEFA Nations League, round 3, League C, group 2 · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Neo GSP

Cyprus — Armenia

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Cyprus38%
Draw26%
Armenia36%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Cyprus to win (38%), came true.

Evenly matched: Cyprus 38%, Armenia 36%, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 64%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Cyprus 1310, Armenia 1367 — Armenia rated higher.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cyprus — Armenia What is xG?1.6–1.6
Cyprus not to lose64%
Armenia not to lose62%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes64%
Both teams to score: no36%
Total over 2.561%
Total under 2.539%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Cyprus
  • Cyprus goals
  • Armenia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Cyprus

  • 28.09away · Latvia0:0
  • 25.09away · Montenegro1:2
  • 07.06away · Liechtenstein2:0
  • 04.06away · Slovenia1:1
  • 30.03Moldova3:2

Armenia

  • 28.09Montenegro2:3
  • 25.09Latvia2:0
  • 09.06Moldova1:1
  • 06.06Kazakhstan1:1
  • 29.03Belarus1:2

Head to head

  • 28.03.2023Armenia — Cyprus2:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveMontenegro43107–4+310
2, Promotion play-offsCyprus42115–3+27
3Armenia41124–5-14
4Latvia40132–6-41

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • CyprusLatvia5 October · UEFA Nations League
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.5
  • MontenegroArmenia5 October · UEFA Nations League
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.0

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KazakhstanMoldova
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
  • LatviaMontenegro
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
  • BelgiumTurkiye
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
  • FranceItaly
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
  • HungaryGeorgia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
  • UkraineNorthern Ireland
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaSweden
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
  • PolandRomania
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →