UEFA Nations League, round 4, League C, group 2 · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Stadion Pod Goricom
Montenegro — Armenia
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Montenegro to win (59%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 59% fails in about 41 matches out of 100 on average.
Montenegro are clear favourites: 59% against 19% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Montenegro 1503, Armenia 1341 — Montenegro clearly rated higher.
- Montenegro: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Montenegro — Armenia What is xG? | 2.0–1.1 | |
| Montenegro not to lose | 81% | |
| Armenia not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Montenegro
- Montenegro goals
- Armenia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 02.10away · Latvia2:1
- 28.09away · Armenia3:2
- 25.09Cyprus2:1
- 05.06away · Slovakia2:2
- 01.06away · Bulgaria1:0
Head to head
- 28.09.2026Armenia — Montenegro2:3
- 09.06.2025Montenegro — Armenia2:2
- 24.03.2022Armenia — Montenegro1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | -4 | 1 |
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.5
- 5225231The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 5922191The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.1
- 4230281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2
- 3030402The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 2527482The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.5
- 2324532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →