Bundesliga, round 6 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Elversberg — Augsburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Elversberg are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 28%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Elversberg are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Elversberg — Augsburg What is xG? | 1.7–1.4 | |
| Elversberg not to lose | 71% | |
| Augsburg not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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- Handicap Elversberg
- Elversberg goals
- Augsburg goals
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Form
- 10.10away · Union Berlin0:1
- 20.09away · Schalke 040:0
- 13.09Bayern München1:2
- 05.09away · Borussia Mönchengladbach4:3
- 29.08Bayer Leverkusen3:2
- 10.10Bayern München2:2
- 19.09away · Werder Bremen2:3
- 12.09Bayer Leverkusen2:2
- 06.09away · Eintracht Frankfurt4:1
- 30.08Schalke 043:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | +10 | 9 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 2026552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 2330472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- 4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:14.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →