Russian Premier League, round 10 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stadion Fakel
Fakel — Lokomotiv Moscow
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0:5Missed
In short
Final score 0:5: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (34%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 34% fails in about 66 matches out of 100 on average.
Lokomotiv Moscow are slightly stronger: 40% against 26%, draw 34%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lokomotiv Moscow are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Fakel: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Fakel 0 wins, Lokomotiv Moscow 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fakel — Lokomotiv Moscow What is xG? | 1.0–1.3 | |
| Fakel not to lose | 60% | |
| Lokomotiv Moscow not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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Form
- 16.09away · Spartak Moscow0:1
- 12.09Baltika2:2
- 05.09away · FC Rostov1:3
- 01.09FC Krasnodar1:1
- 29.08Zenit St. Petersburg0:1
- 16.09Krylya Sovetov Samara1:1
- 12.09away · Zenit St. Petersburg1:2
- 06.09away · Baltika1:0
- 01.09away · Akron Togliatti0:0
- 29.08Dinamo Moscow0:1
Head to head
- 11.05.2025Fakel — Lokomotiv Moscow0:1
- 09.11.2024Lokomotiv Moscow — Fakel2:1
- 18.05.2024Lokomotiv Moscow — Fakel2:0
- 30.07.2023Fakel — Lokomotiv Moscow1:4
- 20.05.2023Lokomotiv Moscow — Fakel1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FC Rostov | 10 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Lokomotiv Moscow | 10 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Akron Togliatti | 10 | 1 | -8 | 8 |
| 15, Relegation | Rodina | 10 | 1 | -15 | 5 |
| 16, Relegation | Fakel | 10 | 0 | -12 | 3 |
Next matches
- Lokomotiv MoscowAkron Togliatti13 October · Russian Cup5624201The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
- FC KrasnodarFakel13 October · Russian Cup841151The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 4:0.3.6
Russian Premier League on the same day
- 403426XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X4:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:1.2.2
- 1930522The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 373330XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:1.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →