Russian Premier League, round 10 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Solidarnost Samara Arena
Krylya Sovetov Samara — Spartak Moscow
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Spartak Moscow to win (52%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 52% fails in about 48 matches out of 100 on average.
Spartak Moscow are clear favourites: 52% against 19% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Spartak Moscow are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Krylya Sovetov Samara — Spartak Moscow What is xG? | 1.0–1.8 | |
| Krylya Sovetov Samara not to lose | 48% | |
| Spartak Moscow not to lose | 81% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Krylya Sovetov Samara
- Krylya Sovetov Samara goals
- Spartak Moscow goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 16.09away · Lokomotiv Moscow1:1
- 11.09Rodina2:1
- 05.09FC Krasnodar2:2
- 02.09away · Baltika0:0
- 29.08away · FK Akhmat3:3
- 16.09Fakel1:0
- 13.09FC Rostov3:0
- 06.09away · Dinamo Moscow1:2
- 02.09Rodina3:1
- 30.08FC Orenburg1:1
Head to head
- 01.05.2026Krylya Sovetov Samara — Spartak Moscow2:1
- 21.09.2025Spartak Moscow — Krylya Sovetov Samara2:1
- 18.05.2025Krylya Sovetov Samara — Spartak Moscow0:2
- 19.09.2024Spartak Moscow — Krylya Sovetov Samara4:1
- 14.08.2024Krylya Sovetov Samara — Spartak Moscow0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 6 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 10 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Krylya Sovetov Samara | 10 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 10 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
Next matches
- Krylya Sovetov SamaraBaltika14 October · Russian Cup3226422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- RodinaSpartak Moscow15 October · Russian Cup917742The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
Russian Premier League on the same day
- 403426XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X4:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:1.2.2
- 263440XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:5Final score 0:5. Model's score: 1:1.2.3
- 373330XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:1.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →