Kazakhstan Premier League, round 23 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
FC Astana — Kaspiy Aktau
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
FC Astana are clear favourites: 76% against 8% for the opponent, draw 15%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Astana are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: FC Astana — No. 3, 51 pts; Kaspiy Aktau — No. 10, 32 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
- Last 3 meetings: FC Astana 2 wins, Kaspiy Aktau 1.
- Days of rest before the match: FC Astana 4, Kaspiy Aktau 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Astana — Kaspiy Aktau What is xG? | 2.3–0.7 | |
| FC Astana not to lose | 92% | |
| Kaspiy Aktau not to lose | 24% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Astana
- FC Astana goals
- Kaspiy Aktau goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10away · Irtysh Pavlodar1:0
- 10.10away · Tobol Kostanay1:2
- 17.09Kairat Almaty1:0
- 12.09away · Ordabasy Shymkent0:1
- 06.09FC Yelimay4:0
- 11.10FC Altai Oskemen2:1
- 18.09away · Zhetysu Taldykorgan1:0
- 12.09Aktobe1:2
- 05.09Kairat Almaty0:3
- 30.08Tobol Kostanay1:0
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Kaspiy Aktau — FC Astana1:0
- 02.07.2023Kaspiy Aktau — FC Astana1:2
- 24.06.2023FC Astana — Kaspiy Aktau3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | +32 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 27 | 15 | +17 | 51 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | +9 | 45 |
| 9 | Zhenis | 27 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspiy Aktau | 27 | 9 | -8 | 32 |
| 11 | FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk | 27 | 7 | -9 | 28 |
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- 4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
- 5724191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 821361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →