Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 9 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
FC Groningen — Ajax
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Ajax are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 69%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ajax are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Groningen — Ajax What is xG? | 1.5–1.8 | |
| FC Groningen not to lose | 59% | |
| Ajax not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 31% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Groningen
- FC Groningen goals
- Ajax goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Excelsior5:1
- 18.09PEC Zwolle3:0
- 12.09away · Go Ahead Eagles1:1
- 06.09FC Twente2:2
- 28.08Fortuna Sittard2:3
- 10.10NEC Nijmegen1:1
- 19.09Excelsior2:2
- 15.09Willem II5:1
- 12.09away · Fortuna Sittard5:1
- 05.09PSV Eindhoven1:3
Head to head
- 21.05.2026Ajax — FC Groningen2:0
- 07.03.2026FC Groningen — Ajax3:1
- 02.12.2025Ajax — FC Groningen2:0
- 14.05.2025FC Groningen — Ajax2:2
- 06.10.2024Ajax — FC Groningen3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Twente | 8 | 5 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 8 | 4 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- 3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.3
- 1824582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.4
- 6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.5
- 6123161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →