Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 9 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
NEC Nijmegen — Fortuna Sittard
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
NEC Nijmegen are clear favourites: 62% against 16% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings NEC Nijmegen are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: NEC Nijmegen — No. 11, 9 pts; Fortuna Sittard — No. 7, 14 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- NEC Nijmegen: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 2 wins, Fortuna Sittard 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen — Fortuna Sittard What is xG? | 2.3–1.2 | |
| NEC Nijmegen not to lose | 84% | |
| Fortuna Sittard not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap NEC Nijmegen
- NEC Nijmegen goals
- Fortuna Sittard goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 10.10away · Ajax1:1
- 20.09Go Ahead Eagles1:1
- 17.09away · Juventus0:5
- 12.09away · Cambuur0:3
- 08.09Excelsior2:2
- 10.10FC Twente1:1
- 19.09away · Willem II1:0
- 12.09Ajax1:5
- 06.09away · ADO Den Haag3:2
- 28.08away · FC Groningen3:2
Head to head
- 28.02.2026NEC Nijmegen — Fortuna Sittard2:3
- 31.08.2025Fortuna Sittard — NEC Nijmegen3:2
- 19.01.2025NEC Nijmegen — Fortuna Sittard4:1
- 31.08.2024Fortuna Sittard — NEC Nijmegen0:3
- 02.04.2024Fortuna Sittard — NEC Nijmegen1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Groningen | 8 | 4 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | SC Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- 2928442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.2
- 1422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.3
- 2127522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
- 6920101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →