Russian Cup, round 4 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Ozon Arena
FC Krasnodar — Fakel
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In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, FC Krasnodar to win (84%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 84% fails in about 16 matches out of 100 on average.
FC Krasnodar are clear favourites: 84% against 5% for the opponent, draw 11%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Krasnodar are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
- FC Krasnodar: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Krasnodar — Fakel What is xG? | 3.0–0.6 | |
| FC Krasnodar not to lose | 95% | |
| Fakel not to lose | 16% | |
| No draw | 89% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 70% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 30% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Krasnodar
- FC Krasnodar goals
- Fakel goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
- 17.09away · FC Orenburg0:0
- 13.09Akron Togliatti1:1
- 05.09away · Krylya Sovetov Samara2:2
- 01.09away · Fakel1:1
- 10.10Lokomotiv Moscow0:5
- 16.09away · Spartak Moscow0:1
- 12.09Baltika2:2
- 05.09away · FC Rostov1:3
- 01.09FC Krasnodar1:1
Head to head
- 01.09.2026Fakel — FC Krasnodar1:1
- 02.08.2026FC Krasnodar — Fakel3:2
- 30.03.2025FC Krasnodar — Fakel5:0
- 04.08.2024Fakel — FC Krasnodar0:0
- 19.04.2024FC Krasnodar — Fakel2:0
Next matches
- Krylya Sovetov SamaraFakel17 October · Russian Premier League5230181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- Lokomotiv MoscowFC Krasnodar17 October · Russian Premier League2631432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
Russian Cup on the same day
- 4027331The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 5624201The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 84% will not happen in roughly 16 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →