Russian Premier League, round 11 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Krylya Sovetov Samara — Fakel
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Krylya Sovetov Samara are clear favourites: 47% against 22% for the opponent, draw 31%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Krylya Sovetov Samara are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Krylya Sovetov Samara: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- League table: Krylya Sovetov Samara — No. 9, 12 pts; Fakel — No. 16, 3 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Krylya Sovetov Samara 3 wins, Fakel 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Krylya Sovetov Samara — Fakel What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| Krylya Sovetov Samara not to lose | 78% | |
| Fakel not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Krylya Sovetov Samara
- Krylya Sovetov Samara goals
- Fakel goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10Baltika0:2
- 10.10Spartak Moscow1:1
- 16.09away · Lokomotiv Moscow1:1
- 11.09Rodina2:1
- 05.09FC Krasnodar2:2
- 13.10away · FC Krasnodar2:0
- 10.10Lokomotiv Moscow0:5
- 16.09away · Spartak Moscow0:1
- 12.09Baltika2:2
- 05.09away · FC Rostov1:3
Head to head
- 24.05.2025Fakel — Krylya Sovetov Samara1:1
- 11.08.2024Krylya Sovetov Samara — Fakel2:0
- 25.04.2024Fakel — Krylya Sovetov Samara0:1
- 02.09.2023Krylya Sovetov Samara — Fakel3:0
- 28.05.2023Fakel — Krylya Sovetov Samara2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 10 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Krylya Sovetov Samara | 10 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 10 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 15, Relegation | Rodina | 10 | 1 | -15 | 5 |
| 16, Relegation | Fakel | 10 | 0 | -12 | 3 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- 4630241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 363232XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →