J1 League (Japan), round 11 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
FC Tokyo — Kashiwa Reysol
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Tokyo are slightly stronger: 45% against 28%, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Tokyo are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Tokyo — Kashiwa Reysol What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| FC Tokyo not to lose | 72% | |
| Kashiwa Reysol not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- FC Tokyo goals
- Kashiwa Reysol goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10Urawa Red Diamonds3:0
- 19.09Nagoya Grampus1:0
- 12.09away · Gamba Osaka2:0
- 06.09Kyoto Sanga FC2:0
- 02.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse1:1
- 09.10Vissel Kobe4:2
- 20.09away · Machida Zelvia4:2
- 11.09away · Kyoto Sanga FC3:2
- 06.09Yokohama F.Marinos0:2
- 02.09away · Cerezo Osaka0:2
Head to head
- 29.04.2026Kashiwa Reysol — FC Tokyo1:3
- 28.02.2026FC Tokyo — Kashiwa Reysol0:2
- 05.07.2025Kashiwa Reysol — FC Tokyo1:0
- 11.04.2025FC Tokyo — Kashiwa Reysol1:1
- 06.07.2024Kashiwa Reysol — FC Tokyo3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
J1 League on the same day
- Avispa FukuokaGamba Osakapreliminary372934XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
- Kawasaki FrontaleVissel Kobepreliminary3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- Kyoto Sanga FCKashima Antlerspreliminary3127422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
- Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osakapreliminary4227321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Fagiano Okayama FCMito Hollyhockpreliminary5128211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- Shimizu S-PulseMachida Zelviapreliminary2728452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- V-Varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshimapreliminary1422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- Yokohama F.MarinosTokyo Verdypreliminary5129211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →