J1 League (Japan), round 11 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
V-Varen Nagasaki — Sanfrecce Hiroshima
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are clear favourites: 64% against 14% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sanfrecce Hiroshima are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: V-Varen Nagasaki — No. 14, 9 pts; Sanfrecce Hiroshima — No. 2, 20 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: V-Varen Nagasaki 0 wins, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: V-Varen Nagasaki — Sanfrecce Hiroshima What is xG? | 0.8–2.0 | |
| V-Varen Nagasaki not to lose | 36% | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- Handicap V-Varen Nagasaki
- V-Varen Nagasaki goals
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Form
- 11.10away · JEF United Chiba1:1
- 19.09Cerezo Osaka1:1
- 12.09Nagoya Grampus2:0
- 06.09away · Vissel Kobe1:3
- 02.09Gamba Osaka2:2
- 11.10away · Tokyo Verdy2:0
- 19.09away · Avispa Fukuoka1:0
- 12.09Cerezo Osaka6:1
- 06.09away · Fagiano Okayama FC2:3
- 02.09Nagoya Grampus3:0
Head to head
- 18.04.2026Sanfrecce Hiroshima — V-Varen Nagasaki2:0
- 06.02.2026V-Varen Nagasaki — Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
J1 League on the same day
- Avispa FukuokaGamba Osakapreliminary4029311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- FC TokyoKashiwa Reysolpreliminary4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- Kawasaki FrontaleVissel Kobepreliminary3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Kyoto Sanga FCKashima Antlerspreliminary2626472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osakapreliminary3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Fagiano Okayama FCMito Hollyhockpreliminary5527191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Shimizu S-PulseMachida Zelviapreliminary2628462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
- Yokohama F.MarinosTokyo Verdypreliminary5029211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →