J1 League (Japan), round 11 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Fagiano Okayama FC — Mito Hollyhock
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Fagiano Okayama FC are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Fagiano Okayama FC are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fagiano Okayama FC — Mito Hollyhock What is xG? | 1.4–0.8 | |
| Fagiano Okayama FC not to lose | 79% | |
| Mito Hollyhock not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fagiano Okayama FC
- Fagiano Okayama FC goals
- Mito Hollyhock goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · Avispa Fukuoka1:2
- 19.09Kyoto Sanga FC1:2
- 13.09away · Urawa Red Diamonds2:1
- 06.09Sanfrecce Hiroshima3:2
- 02.09away · JEF United Chiba2:1
- 11.10Shimizu S-Pulse1:2
- 19.09away · Yokohama F.Marinos0:2
- 12.09Kawasaki Frontale0:1
- 05.09away · Avispa Fukuoka1:1
- 02.09Kashima Antlers4:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
J1 League on the same day
- Avispa FukuokaGamba Osakapreliminary372934XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
- FC TokyoKashiwa Reysolpreliminary4527281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- Kawasaki FrontaleVissel Kobepreliminary3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- Kyoto Sanga FCKashima Antlerspreliminary3127422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
- Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osakapreliminary4227321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Shimizu S-PulseMachida Zelviapreliminary2728452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
- V-Varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshimapreliminary1422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- Yokohama F.MarinosTokyo Verdypreliminary5129211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →