J1 League (Japan), round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Ajinomoto Stadium
FC Tokyo — Urawa Red Diamonds
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:0Came true
In short
Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, FC Tokyo to win (49%), came true.
FC Tokyo are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Tokyo are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Tokyo — Urawa Red Diamonds What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| FC Tokyo not to lose | 76% | |
| Urawa Red Diamonds not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap FC Tokyo
- FC Tokyo goals
- Urawa Red Diamonds goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 19.09Nagoya Grampus1:0
- 12.09away · Gamba Osaka2:0
- 06.09Kyoto Sanga FC2:0
- 02.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse1:1
- 29.08away · V-Varen Nagasaki3:0
- 19.09Tokyo Verdy3:1
- 13.09Fagiano Okayama FC1:2
- 06.09away · Kashima Antlers1:0
- 02.09away · Avispa Fukuoka3:2
- 29.08Yokohama F.Marinos3:2
Head to head
- 16.05.2026Urawa Red Diamonds — FC Tokyo0:0
- 14.02.2026FC Tokyo — Urawa Red Diamonds1:1
- 19.07.2025FC Tokyo — Urawa Red Diamonds3:2
- 17.05.2025Urawa Red Diamonds — FC Tokyo3:2
- 21.09.2024Urawa Red Diamonds — FC Tokyo0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
Next matches
- Tokyo VerdyFC Tokyo17 October · J1 League2228502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.2
- Mito HollyhockUrawa Red Diamonds17 October · J1 League2928422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
J1 League on the same day
- 4127321The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 353035XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.0
- 2828442The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →