J1 League (Japan), round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Kyoto Sanga FC — Machida Zelvia
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0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Machida Zelvia to win (44%), came true.
Machida Zelvia are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Machida Zelvia are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kyoto Sanga FC — Machida Zelvia What is xG? | 1.1–1.4 | |
| Kyoto Sanga FC not to lose | 56% | |
| Machida Zelvia not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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Form
- 19.09away · Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 11.09Kashiwa Reysol2:3
- 06.09away · FC Tokyo0:2
- 02.09away · Yokohama F.Marinos1:1
- 29.08Avispa Fukuoka2:1
- 20.09Kashiwa Reysol2:4
- 12.09Yokohama F.Marinos1:1
- 06.09away · Nagoya Grampus3:1
- 02.09Kawasaki Frontale2:1
- 29.08away · Mito Hollyhock1:1
Head to head
- 23.09.2025Kyoto Sanga FC — Machida Zelvia1:1
- 07.05.2025Machida Zelvia — Kyoto Sanga FC1:2
- 30.11.2024Machida Zelvia — Kyoto Sanga FC1:0
- 06.05.2024Kyoto Sanga FC — Machida Zelvia0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
Next matches
- Sanfrecce HiroshimaKyoto Sanga FC17 October · J1 League7218101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Machida ZelviaAvispa Fukuoka18 October · J1 League5527181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
J1 League on the same day
- 4127321The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 353035XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.0
- 4926241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →