J1 League (Japan), round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · YANMAR HANASAKA STADIUM
Cerezo Osaka — Yokohama F.Marinos
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Cerezo Osaka to win (41%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 41% fails in about 59 matches out of 100 on average.
Cerezo Osaka are slightly stronger: 41% against 32%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cerezo Osaka are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cerezo Osaka — Yokohama F.Marinos What is xG? | 1.7–1.5 | |
| Cerezo Osaka not to lose | 68% | |
| Yokohama F.Marinos not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka goals
- Yokohama F.Marinos goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki1:1
- 12.09away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:6
- 06.09Tokyo Verdy0:0
- 02.09Kashiwa Reysol2:0
- 29.08away · Vissel Kobe0:1
- 19.09Mito Hollyhock2:0
- 12.09away · Machida Zelvia1:1
- 06.09away · Kashiwa Reysol2:0
- 02.09Kyoto Sanga FC1:1
- 29.08away · Urawa Red Diamonds2:3
Head to head
- 30.11.2025Yokohama F.Marinos — Cerezo Osaka3:1
- 11.05.2025Cerezo Osaka — Yokohama F.Marinos1:0
- 24.08.2024Yokohama F.Marinos — Cerezo Osaka4:0
- 27.04.2024Cerezo Osaka — Yokohama F.Marinos2:2
- 12.11.2023Yokohama F.Marinos — Cerezo Osaka2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 9 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
Next matches
- JEF United ChibaYokohama F.Marinos17 October · J1 League2927442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- Cerezo OsakaKawasaki Frontale17 October · J1 League4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
J1 League on the same day
- 353035XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.0
- 4926241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 2828442The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →