Russian Premier League, round 10 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Akhmat Arena
FK Akhmat — Baltika
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0:0Came true
In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (35%), came true.
Evenly matched: FK Akhmat 29%, Baltika 36%, draw 35%.
The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Baltika are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FK Akhmat — Baltika What is xG? | 1.0–1.1 | |
| FK Akhmat not to lose | 64% | |
| Baltika not to lose | 71% | |
| No draw | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 34% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 66% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap FK Akhmat
- FK Akhmat goals
- Baltika goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 17.09away · Akron Togliatti0:2
- 13.09Dynamo Makhachkala3:2
- 07.09away · Rubin Kazan1:1
- 03.09away · Dinamo Moscow0:3
- 29.08Krylya Sovetov Samara3:3
- 16.09Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
- 12.09away · Fakel2:2
- 06.09Lokomotiv Moscow0:1
- 02.09Krylya Sovetov Samara0:0
- 30.08away · Rodina3:0
Head to head
- 23.04.2026FK Akhmat — Baltika1:1
- 02.11.2025Baltika — FK Akhmat2:0
- 13.04.2024FK Akhmat — Baltika1:7
- 31.10.2023Baltika — FK Akhmat4:1
- 23.09.2023Baltika — FK Akhmat1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 6 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 10 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | FK Akhmat | 10 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 10 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
Next matches
- Krylya Sovetov SamaraBaltika14 October · Russian Cup3226422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- FK AkhmatDinamo Moscow14 October · Russian Cup1722602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.9
Russian Premier League on the same day
- 731991The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.4
- 2433432The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →