Russian Cup, round 4 · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Akhmat Arena
FK Akhmat — Dinamo Moscow
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:2Came true
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Dinamo Moscow to win (60%), came true.
Dinamo Moscow are clear favourites: 60% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Dinamo Moscow are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- FK Akhmat: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- Dinamo Moscow: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: FK Akhmat 1 win, Dinamo Moscow 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FK Akhmat — Dinamo Moscow What is xG? | 1.0–2.0 | |
| FK Akhmat not to lose | 40% | |
| Dinamo Moscow not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FK Akhmat
- FK Akhmat goals
- Dinamo Moscow goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Baltika0:0
- 17.09away · Akron Togliatti0:2
- 13.09Dynamo Makhachkala3:2
- 07.09away · Rubin Kazan1:1
- 03.09away · Dinamo Moscow0:3
- 11.10away · Rubin Kazan1:0
- 17.09away · FC Rostov3:0
- 12.09FC Orenburg1:0
- 06.09Spartak Moscow2:1
- 03.09FK Akhmat3:0
Head to head
- 03.09.2026Dinamo Moscow — FK Akhmat3:0
- 30.11.2025FK Akhmat — Dinamo Moscow2:1
- 19.10.2025Dinamo Moscow — FK Akhmat2:2
- 02.12.2024FK Akhmat — Dinamo Moscow1:1
- 15.09.2024Dinamo Moscow — FK Akhmat4:2
Next matches
- Zenit St. PetersburgFK Akhmat18 October · Russian Premier League712181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- Dinamo MoscowCSKA Moscow18 October · Russian Premier League4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
Russian Cup on the same day
- 5424221The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 3827361The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 5923181The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.9
- 3827361The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.8
- 3227422The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 3727361The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 1017732The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
- 3827361The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →